« A study finds that 47% of Americans believe it is completely acceptable for a woman to ask a man for his hand in marriage | Main | Surviving Your PreRetirement Years: 15 Things You Must Do Between 50 and 64 »

July 30, 2008


Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Tim Dennell

“Mr. Dilley says the PFM gravitational cycle that controls the formation of an El Nino peaks approximately every 4 years.”

If I’m interpreting what he says rightly that means that El Ninos should occur every four years; if that were the case this 4yr periodicity would have been easily noticed and commented on by others (and used to predict future El Ninos) by now; it hasn’t for a good reason.
Recent El Ninos have occurred in: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.
Only two of those seven can be described as four years apart.

If you look at El Nino dates for the 20th century the four-year cycle looks even shakier, unless you allow very, very generous leeway (up to 9 years!) either side. 1902-1903 1905-1906 1911-1912 1914-1915 1918-1919 1923-1924 1925-1926 1930-1931 1932-1933 1939-1940 1941-1942 1951-1952 1953-1954 1957-1958 1965-1966 1969-1970 1972-1973 1976-1977 1982-1983 1986-1987 1991-1992 1994-1995 1997-1998.

As for recurring lunar gravitational cycles, hmm. You try Googling it, no one else seems to use this term; it’s sufficiently vague as to mean anything or nothing. I’d like to see this hypothesis and its evidence discussed by some astronomical and metrological journals.

There may or may not be an El Nino in December – all forecasters currently work on are changes to Pacific temperatures, as recorded by an array of sensors spread across the Pacific. At present conditions are described as neutral. To be credible Dilley needs to successfully predict, say, the next ten El Ninos. And past experience shows El Ninos don’t occur every four years; and La Nina’s (the cool side of the ENSO cycle) are much rarer than El Ninos and occur less frequently.

Based on the above and the fact that his website contains no argument or data I really have no interest in spending money on his little booklet. If this work were truly ground breaking he’d be eager to share it freely with the world.

Tim Dennell

To follow up on the above, it’s now mid Feb 2009 and no El Nino materialised. Instead a La Nina developed in December and continued during January 2009, as evidenced by below-average equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. This La Nina is expected to continue until April 2009.
So, both Mr Dilley’s forecast and PFM hypothesis appear to have failed at the first hurdle.

If anyone wants accurate El Nino / La Nina forecasting, then NOAA produce regular online reports on current El Nino / La Nina status and forecasts as to duration etc.

deer problem

It is in reality a nice and helpful piece of information. I'm glad that you just shared this useful information with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

Not fake

Many companies don't wish to hire candidates that are away from work, they need to hire candidates who will be gainfully employed Not fake our largest contributor, our largest contributors are very williston and new iberia as of this point over time.

miss pooja live show

If you're doing the transaction online talk to your customer service executive and get all related queries about the money miss pooja live show so tenants and non house owners can easily go because of this option.

pictures of nature

Greetings! Very helpful advice within this post! It's the little changes that produce the biggest changes. Thanks for sharing!

The comments to this entry are closed.

Find the best blogs at Blogs.com.

Become a Fan