El Niño Forecast for Late December 2008: Strongest In Over 10 Years Could Disrupt Worldwide Weather

El Niño Forecast for Late December 2008: Strongest In Over 10 Years Could Disrupt Worldwide Weather

The El Niño which in Spanish means "little boy" and refers to "Christ Child", forms approximately every 4 to 7 years in the tropical South Pacific Ocean. It is a pool of very warm ocean water that suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, normally reaching the coast of South America near Ecuador and Peru around Christmas, raising havoc with fishing interests and causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere, and summer months in the Southern hemisphere. Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) says a recurring gravitational cycle called the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate", will act like a magnet and cause the South Pacific high pressure center to be pulled out of its normal location in October and November, setting the stage for a moderate to strong El Niño to form in December.

Ocala, FL (PRWEB) July 30, 2008 -- The El Niño which in Spanish means "little boy" and refers to "Christ Child", forms approximately every 4 to 7 years in the tropical South Pacific Ocean. It is a pool of very warm ocean water that suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, normally reaching the coast of South America near Ecuador and Peru around Christmas, raising havoc with fishing interests and causing significant disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.

Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) says a recurring gravitational cycle called the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate", will act like a magnet and cause the South Pacific high pressure center to be pulled out of its normal location in October and November, setting the stage for a moderate to strong El Niño to form in December.

El Nino Forecast 2008-09

During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the Western Pacific near Australia. Then as the PFM gravitational cycle pulls the tropical high pressure system from its normal location, the easterly trade winds suddenly shift direction to westerly.

Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate

This shift allows the very warm pool of water near Australia to move east toward South America as an El Niño. As it moves east it disrupts normal atmospheric weather patterns around the world, causing some areas to have stronger than normal storms, and some areas less stormy weather. It also causes changes in ocean currents and temperatures, thus disrupting commercial fishing.

Mr. Dilley says the PFM gravitational cycle that controls the formation of an El Niño peaks approximately every 4 years, and it will again peak during this September into January. As this occurs, the tropical South Pacific Ocean and atmospheric winds will respond rapidly and cause the formation of a moderate to strong El Niño by Christmas. This will likely be the strongest El Niño in over 10 years, and cause disruptions in weather patterns during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere, and summer months in the Southern hemisphere.

The technology used in forecasting the upcoming El Niño is the same used for predicting the natural cycles of global warming and cooling. PFM gravitational cycles pull the atmosphere's high pressure systems northward or southward by as much as 3 or 5 degrees of latitude from their normal seasonal positions.

These cycles correspond nearly 100 percent with the last 24 moderate to strong El Niño occurrences since 1914, and with global warming cycles that recur approximate every 230 years, and mega global warming cycles that occur every 116,000 years. Additional information on the El Niño and the peer reviewed computer e-Book "Global Warming - Global Cooling, Natural Cause Found" is available at http://www.globalweathercycles.com.

David Dilley is a meteorologist and climate researcher with Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), former meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and co-host of the radio program "the Politically Incorrect Weather Guys" airing weekly on RadioEarNetwork.com, an internet streaming radio program.

Comments

[Tim Dennell]

“Mr. Dilley says the PFM gravitational cycle that controls the formation of an El Nino peaks approximately every 4 years.”

If I’m interpreting what he says rightly that means that El Ninos should occur every four years; if that were the case this 4yr periodicity would have been easily noticed and commented on by others (and used to predict future El Ninos) by now; it hasn’t for a good reason.
Recent El Ninos have occurred in: 1986-1987, 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.
Only two of those seven can be described as four years apart.

If you look at El Nino dates for the 20th century the four-year cycle looks even shakier, unless you allow very, very generous leeway (up to 9 years!) either side. 1902-1903 1905-1906 1911-1912 1914-1915 1918-1919 1923-1924 1925-1926 1930-1931 1932-1933 1939-1940 1941-1942 1951-1952 1953-1954 1957-1958 1965-1966 1969-1970 1972-1973 1976-1977 1982-1983 1986-1987 1991-1992 1994-1995 1997-1998.

As for recurring lunar gravitational cycles, hmm. You try Googling it, no one else seems to use this term; it’s sufficiently vague as to mean anything or nothing. I’d like to see this hypothesis and its evidence discussed by some astronomical and metrological journals.

There may or may not be an El Nino in December – all forecasters currently work on are changes to Pacific temperatures, as recorded by an array of sensors spread across the Pacific. At present conditions are described as neutral. To be credible Dilley needs to successfully predict, say, the next ten El Ninos. And past experience shows El Ninos don’t occur every four years; and La Nina’s (the cool side of the ENSO cycle) are much rarer than El Ninos and occur less frequently.

Based on the above and the fact that his website contains no argument or data I really have no interest in spending money on his little booklet. If this work were truly ground breaking he’d be eager to share it freely with the world.

[Tim Dennell]

To follow up on the above, it’s now mid Feb 2009 and no El Nino materialised. Instead a La Nina developed in December and continued during January 2009, as evidenced by below-average equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean. This La Nina is expected to continue until April 2009.
So, both Mr Dilley’s forecast and PFM hypothesis appear to have failed at the first hurdle.

If anyone wants accurate El Nino / La Nina forecasting, then NOAA produce regular online reports on current El Nino / La Nina status and forecasts as to duration etc.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

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